Tag: Chance test
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Lost at sea: is the Bermuda Triangle worse than its traffic?

I placed 472 famous disappearances on the map and tested every sea against its shipping. The Bermuda Triangle has 8 against 2.8 expected, but its neighbours run just as high, and most of its famous cases happened outside it.
Tristan Hotham
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Does rain keep Britain at home?

Every UK general election since 1945, seat by seat, against the rain that fell while the polls were open. Wetter seats saw turnout about 0.1 points lower per millimetre, but with only 22 elections that is not established, and there is no sign that rain helps any party.
Tristan Hotham
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Twinned with Europe, voted Remain? Town twinning and the Brexit vote

British towns have 1,445 recorded twinnings, 79% of them with towns in the EU. I checked whether the places with European twins voted Remain in 2016. Comparing like with like, they voted about the same as similar places.
Tristan Hotham
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Did enclosure cause the Swing riots? A test on every parish

Historians have long blamed enclosure for the Swing riots of 1830. I linked every enclosure Act to 9,674 parishes and wrote the test down first: enclosed parishes rioted a little more, but the gap looks like parish size, not grievance.
Tristan Hotham
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Did Beeching’s cuts make places vote Leave?

3,206 railway stations closed between 1955 and 1975. The places that lost them voted Leave in 2016, but compared with similar places that kept their trains, they voted no differently.
Tristan Hotham
