Tag: Election forecasting
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Finland’s small parties were big on Facebook. It did not tell you who would win votes.
Between 2015 and 2020, Finland’s three biggest established parties won about two-thirds of the vote among the parties I studied but drew 44% of Facebook engagement. The Greens’ page faded just as their vote grew.
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Looking them up: Wikipedia attention, Facebook engagement and votes
Before elections, parties’ share of Wikipedia views tracked their vote share more closely than their share of Facebook engagement did. But neither beat simply knowing how they did last time.
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Do likes predict votes? Facebook engagement and 34 European elections
Parties’ Facebook engagement before an election was related to their vote share, but it told us much less than the previous election result, and added almost nothing once that was known.
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Can Facebook engagement forecast an election?
Across 31 European elections, parties’ shares of Facebook engagement missed the vote by 9.6 points on average, against 1.8 for the final polls. A new paper from my doctoral data asks what engagement does and does not tell us.
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Not a forecast: the Scandinavian radical right on Facebook
In Sweden and Norway the radical right drew two to three times its poll share of party Facebook engagement, every month. But that told you almost nothing about where its support was going.
