Tag: Election forecasting

• Facebook loved Corbyn and Farage. The polls had other ideas.

  

  Ten years of Facebook data on Britain’s parties and their leaders, matched to the polls. Who carried each party online, how badly Facebook misread the electorate, and what engagement does and does not tell you.

  Tristan Hotham

  Research papers

  Britain, Election forecasting, elections, Facebook, Opinion polls, Party leaders, political parties, UK

• Trump’s YouTube numbers looked like a vote predictor. They mostly weren’t.

  

  I took a county-by-county record of YouTube views of Trump and Clinton content in 2016 and asked what it adds once you know where a place already stood. Less than you would think, but not nothing.

  Tristan Hotham

  Research papers

  2016 US election, Election forecasting, elections, research access, Social Media, United States, US politics