Tag: Opinion polls

• Not a forecast: the Scandinavian radical right on Facebook

  

  In Sweden and Norway the radical right drew two to three times its poll share of party Facebook engagement, every month. But that told you almost nothing about where its support was going.

  Tristan Hotham

  Research papers

  Election forecasting, elections, Europe, Facebook, Opinion polls, political parties, populism, Sweden

• Ahead of the polls? What Facebook showed before Sinn Féin’s 2020 surge

  

  Sinn Féin’s share of Irish political Facebook jumped in autumn 2019, before most polls picked up its surge. But the signal was messier than it looks, and the same measure has cried wolf before.

  Tristan Hotham

  Research papers

  Britain, elections, Europe, Facebook, Ireland, Opinion polls, political parties

• Facebook loved Corbyn and Farage. The polls had other ideas.

  

  Ten years of Facebook data on Britain’s parties and their leaders, matched to the polls. Who carried each party online, how badly Facebook misread the electorate, and what engagement does and does not tell you.

  Tristan Hotham

  Research papers

  Britain, Election forecasting, elections, Facebook, Opinion polls, Party leaders, political parties, UK